The U.S. housing market has seen major shifts over the past two decades, with some areas experiencing booms and busts while others remain on a steadier path. For most homebuyers and investors, knowing where home values have historically held firm through economic ups and downs is critical.
A new study from Construction Coverage identifies the most and least stable housing markets in the country. Analyzing home price trends since 2000, researchers ranked states and major metros based on the likelihood that a random homebuyer would have experienced a price drop greater than 5% following their purchase.
Locally, it found that the Gainesville metro (Gainesville-Hall County) is the 2nd least stable housing market in the country.
To quote the report: “Over the last 25 years, the largest drop the Gainesville metro has seen in its median home price was 35.2%. And with a 46.2% chance of experiencing a price drop of at least 5% since 2000, the Gainesville metro is the 2nd least stable of any small U.S. metro.”
Other key takeaways from the report:
* Housing vs. Stock Market: The U.S. housing market has offered more stability than the stock market over the past 25 years. But while home prices have been less volatile, long-term gains have been lower (+196% for the Zillow Home Value Index vs. +322% for the S&P 500 Index).
* State-Level Stability: Home price stability varies dramatically by location. Five states—South Dakota, Oklahoma, Alaska, Iowa, and Vermont—never saw median home prices drop by more than 5% at any point over the past 25 years.
* Most Volatile States: In Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, and Arizona, a random buyer had at least a 40% probability of experiencing a price decline greater than 5% at some point.
The full report covers more than 200 U.S. metros and all states with complete data available, with a detailed breakdown of home price changes in each market since 2000. We’ve also included a link to high-resolution, downloadable graphics at the bottom of this email.
The full report is here: https://constructioncoverage.com/research/the-most-stable-housing-markets